Vincent Gray supporters were elated following last Wednesday’s mayoral debate at the Newseum sponsored by the Washington Post. Carrying signs and decked out in t-shirts and stickers, they seemed to crowd out the mostly subdued Fenty crowd on Pennsylvania Ave., the Gray supporter with the bullhorn repeatedly bellowing out, in the style of a boxing announcer, “Yooooouuurrrrrrr winnnnerrrr, Vince Ggggrrrrraaaayyyy!”

Recent polls place incumbent Mayor Adrian Fenty in serious trouble. Not quite knocked out, the mayor who won every precinct in the city four years ago is on the ropes. The challenger, City Council Chairman Vincent Gray, is on a roll: picking up endorsements and up 17 points among “likely voters” in a recent Washington Post poll.

All of Gray’s newfound confidence was on display September 1^st when the two main candidates for mayor met to debate. The challenger was cool, collected, even telling a joke here and there. He sidestepped nearly every criticism that Fenty threw at him, and then threw it right back. To put it bluntly, Fenty just seemed off his game.

The criticisms each candidate lobbed at the other haven’t changed all summer. To summarize: Gray claims to be a unifier and a consensus builder (as opposed to the “decisive” and “arrogant” Fenty), who will end “cronyism and sweetheart deals for the mayor’s frat brothers” and bring new economic opportunities.

Fenty—while apologizing for not being a better communicator—claims that he is the mayor that has and will continue to bring results, and frequently ties his opponent to “the dark old days” of the early 1990s when the city faced a higher crime rate, serious financial perils, and when “bad manager” Vince Gray was in charge of the Department of Human Services.

Yet, while the candidates’ lines were predictable, the crowd’s response was not. Fenty frequently received boos, hisses, loud groans, and dismissive laughter. Gray on the other hand received cheers, applause, and even—I am not making this up—an “amen” from an adoring crowd. It was hard to not almost feel bad for Fenty.

After all, the Fenty Administration does have a concrete record of accomplishments to point to. Regardless of one’s political leanings, it is undeniable that test scores in the schools are indeed up, crime is down, and new recreation centers and affordable housing units have been constructed. On the other hand, while he has released an ambitious economic development plan, Gray hasn’t even articulated a full policy platform.

But perhaps the most consequential difference between the two candidates—and the reason that Gray may be the next mayor—became apparent when the topic of the debate turned to the District’s racial divide. Polling shows a major racial disparity in candidate support, with 64 percent of white voters supporting Fenty and 64 percent of black voters supporting Gray. When asked to explain the disparity, Fenty opened up a can of his usual apologies, promising to be more open and receptive to every single community in the city if he is re-elected, claiming that his hard drive to get results has led some to feel left out.

Gray, however, put a stake in the heart of the matter: “It’s not a racial issue. It’s an economic issue.” Bingo. Unemployment in Ward 8 is a shocking 30 percent, while citywide it hovers around 10 percent. In prosperous—and mostly white—Ward 3 it is a paltry three percent.

Why do most African-Americans in Wards 7 and 8 support Gray over Fenty?  Maybe because when the mayor talks about results, it doesn’t feel like he is talking to them. Add the degree of human misery that accompanies 30 percent unemployment, and Fenty’s talk about “results” seems almost insulting. It becomes easy to see why many voters find him arrogant and detached: His petty spats with the City Council over baseball tickets and the lack of attention he pays to many community leaders aren’t the primary causes for his unpopularity, they are simply insults added to economic injury. It seems like he just doesn’t care.

With just days to go until the September 14^th primary, the heat is squarely on the mayor. Followers of D.C. politics agree, for better or worse, that this election really is a referendum on Adrian Fenty. Hardcore supporters of the Fenty/Rhee education policy wouldn’t vote against the guy if he was arrested for smoking crack. They truly believe he is bringing the city into the 21^st century and that a Gray Administration would be a managerial disaster. On the other side stands a larger contingency that thinks the mayor is an arrogant and aloof jerk, unresponsive to the needs of the city’s poorest residence. They would vote for anybody-but-Fenty.

Can Fenty convince the remaining undecided voters that his mea culpa is sincere, that the results he brings is what they need? His political life certainly depends on it, but it may be too late.

Photo: Flickr / Wayan Vota